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Bad luck !

According to the table below(published by the New York Times [1] today on March 20), New York has almost 7 times the amount of registered infected Corona patients but "only" about 0.5% of them have died so far.

That's quite a good quota (for Corona). Let's have a look at the other side of the continent. There is Washington. Their deathrate is nearly 6%. That's quite a contrast. What can be the reason for these differences? In most other States the mortality rate is roughly around the usual of 2%.
Here are some (not seriously meant) hypotheses a manager might conclude from the published table:

  • The New Yorkers are either doing something extremly right and those in Washington are doing something extremely wrong
  • The dirty air in New York is poison for the virus. The more CO2, the better for human beings. Bad news for Greta Thunberg.
  • Closer: New York may not be a typical state for eldery people to relax...,probably more young and healthy people live there while in Washington may be a pan of sick or eldery people spend the rest of their lives there (again, this isn't meant seriously, okay?)
  • New York was better prepared for this predictable disaster
  • or...the measures may have been taken inconsistently and/or the numbers are simply wrong
Let's get more curious and read the full article. We find valuable information by reading the details and start to understand what happened. It is noted that 2900 of the reported cases in New York were all registered only today. Interesting, probably it is too early for those new cases to die. If we ignore these new cases (7102-2900), we still have a quite good quote of 0.8%. Better than in many countries worldwide. But further reading the article reveals “At least 35 of the deaths were connected to a single nursing center in Washington" and "...many of those cases involved older people with other health problems that made them especially vulnerable to coronavirus”.

Aha! Now we get closer to it. It may have been just bad luck for this nuring center to get hit so hard. If you ignore these numbers (75-35)…we are back to an almost usual rate of 2%.

Nothing to worry. Well, you know what I mean. These numbers were alerting at first sight, but there is a simple explanation. No need to look for creative hypothetical argumentation and give room for exaggerated lessons learnt.

A similar incident once happend near the end of our software development sprint. In parallel to the development of User-Stories, we also performed refactoring tasks to get rid of technical debt. As is the nature of refactoring, it may break previously working functionality. This is what happened: Instead of being ready for the sprint review, we had to reject the demonstration of two buggy user-stories that were working properly just a day before. It cost us valuable story points.We didn't achieve the goal. What followed were longwinded discussions and assumptions of what to do and what not to do in the future, whereas I thought: "WTF, Just bad luck, shit happens".


[1]https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

(Source: Simply the Test)